Predictability Studies report: A study of GCSE and GCE level examinations
As part of its work in maintaining standards in qualifications, exams and tests, Ofqual has published a study of predictability in GCSE and GCE examinations. The research was designed to identify issues associated with predictable and formulaic questions in exam papers, and to consider if this had an impact on exam standards.
A risk analysis, using reports, monitoring and other sources of intelligence, was undertaken to identify subjects that were potentially at risk of undesirable predictability in examinations. This study looked at nine subjects in total. These were: GCSE modern foreign languages (French and German), history, media studies and GCE psychology, English literature, geography, law, physics and religious studies. The report found that in the vast majority of the subjects studied, concerns about "over-predictability" were not founded. A degree of consistency in exams is necessary to ensure that they are valid tests of the learner's knowledge, understanding and skills.
Ofqual will be working closely with the awarding bodies to ensure that any concerns about predictability are addressed in the setting of future examination papers to ensure that there is no undesirable predictability.
In the small number of cases where the study reported concerns about predictability, the examinations in question have either been revised or are in the process of revision. The early findings of this study fed into the revisions to GCSEs and A levels to ensure that any concerns about predictability were addressed.
A press release is also available.