Report on predictability of exam questions
11 September 2008
As part of its work in maintaining standards, Ofqual has today published a study of predictability in examinations at GCSE and GCE level.
The research was designed to explore the extent to which examination papers, in a range of GCSE and GCE subjects, were "predictable" and any implications for exam standards. The report found that in the vast majority of the subjects studied, concerns about "over-predictability" were not founded. A degree of consistency in exams is necessary to ensure that they are valid tests of the learner's knowledge, understanding and skills.
Kathleen Tattersall, Chair of Ofqual, today commented:
"This report is an important piece of work on an issue which has not been studied in this way before. It is encouraging to see that the vast majority of GCSE and A level exam questions that we looked at were consistently worded but not over-predictable. Learners, parents and teachers can be confident that GCSEs and A levels are rigorous and challenging qualifications.
"In the small number of cases where the study reported concerns about predictability, the examinations in question have either been revised or are in the process of revision.
"We will continue to monitor qualifications, exams and tests to ensure that all students get a fair deal and that standards are maintained."
Notes to editors
1. The Predictability Studies report covers nine subjects in total. These were: GCSE modern foreign languages (French and German), history, media studies, GCE psychology, English literature, geography, law, physics, religious studies.
In selecting the qualifications to be studied recent monitoring reports were reviewed for cases where predictability had been identified as a possible concern and Ofqual staff and independent consultants, with extensive experience of assessment, identified current examinations where predictability might be an issue.
2. The report can be downloaded from the Ofqual website.
3. Ofqual in its interim form is a part of the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA). On 2 April 2008 Ed Balls, Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families, announced that the government intended to legislate to make Ofqual a separate statutory authority reporting directly to Parliament.
4. Ed Balls, Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families and John Denham, Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills, announced the appointment of Kathleen Tattersall as Chair of Ofqual on 2 April 2008. Prior to legislation being passed to establish Ofqual on a statutory basis, Kathleen Tattersall is a QCA Board member and Chair of its Ofqual committee.
5. To find out more about Ofqual contact the press office newsdesk on 0300 303 3342 or the out-of-hours duty press officer on 07798 924 552. Members of the public should contact the Ofqual helpline on 0300 303 3346. Or there are alternative ways to contact us.