Investigating the relationship between A level results and prior attainment at GCSE

Friday, 30 September 2011 09:00

The National Foundation for Educational Research (NfER) was commissioned in December 2009 by the regulators of A level exams. The objective was to carry out statistical analysis to examine the validity of the approach taken by the Awarding Organisations (AOs) to guide A level awarding processes.

The awarding processes use candidates’ GCSE grade outcomes (mean GCSE scores) as a measure of prior attainment in order to provide predicted likely outcomes of A level results. These prediction matrices are then used to guide examiners during the awarding meetings where grade boundaries are set.

The analysis sought to explore how consistently the approach is used across AOs, and to explore any potential ways it could be improved. The analysis found that the approach taken using the matrix is sound, and it was recommended that no change be made to current practice.

In England and Wales, the four AOs delivering A levels use a single prediction matrix, while in Northern Ireland, CCEA awarding organisation use a separate matrix for Northern Ireland candidates. Another specific analysis was carried out by NfER to review the use of a separate matrix. This analysis resulted in a recommendation from the regulators that CCEA should move to use the same matrix as the other AOs and come into line over time with the standards of the other AOs.

The report is available to download:
Investigating the relationship between A level results and prior attainment at GCSE [PDF, 3223KB]

Last Updated on Friday, 30 September 2011 09:29 Tags: Ofqual, education, examination regulation, qualifications, assessments